Feb. 2 Special Elections Preview and Predictions
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In the first federal race since the Massachusetts Senate election in January, primary voters will chose the two party nominees to replace outgoing Democratic Representative Robert Wexler. The district is heavily democratic as well as one with a large Jewish population. I predict that Ted Deutch, the establishment candidate, will win the Democratic nomination while Joe Budd will emerge from the Republican 3-person primary.
The three races fall in fairly partisan areas. District 27 should be the closest race, but Democrat Pat Conway should hold the seat for his party – and beat out his opponent who literally lives in the same St. Joseph apartment building.
Democrat Hope Whitehead should win in the urban St. Louis district over her independent rival (who is supported seemingly by the mayor of St. Louis) and in district 62, Nita Jane Ayres will easily hold the seat for Republicans.
After Jimmy Higdon won an incredibly expensive and important State Senate race, his house seat is up for a vote. I haven’t read or heard much about this race and so I presume that Republican Leo Johnson will hold the seat and beat out Democrat Terry Mills.
After coming incredibly close, Hardie Davis will hope to seal the race for this Augusta, Georgia Senate seat. After a stirring endorsement by the Augusta Chronicle, I do not forsee his opponent, Harold Jones, coming back and winning this one.
Once again, this race is incredibly hard to track because apparently in New Hampshire, not much news makes its way to the newspaper. It could also be the fact that this is just one of 400!! house districts in the small state. If newspapers had to cover each one, well, it would be a lot of paper dedicated to legislative races. That all being said, I think John Tholl will be the Republican nominee and John Roberge, who ran in 2008, will be the Democratic selection.