Posted by: jamesvw | December 7, 2009

December 8 Rundown and Predictions

December 8 Election Day Preview and Predictions

Well its almost here. For junkies like me, this is the biggest election day until the 2010 primary season starts in February. This day has everything, a wide open primary to fill a US Senate seat in Massachusetts, a behemoth field of candidates for Mayor of Birmingham, an extremely expensive State Senate race closely watched by both parties, a vicious City Council race in Los Angeles as well as a few other races.

Check back tomorrow evening for live results in all the races, although I cannot promise to stay up too late into the morning if LA voters are not decisive.

Massachusetts Senate Race (Original Post)

Four Democrats, two Republicans. One from each will emerge to fight to replace the irreplaceable Senator Ted Kennedy. It seems pretty clear that Republicans will choose Scott Brown over Jack Robinson on Tuesday.

The real contest is with the Democrats. From the beginning, Democrat Martha Coakley has maintained a lead in the polls and in establishment support. However, Congressman Mike Capuano has run a spirited campaign mostly from the left and is sure to keep it close. Alan Khazei made waves by receiving the endorsement of the largest newspaper in the state and he and Steve Pagliuca are hoping that the race is split enough to surprise everyone with a victory.

My prediction is not earth-shattering. Coakley was the candidate to beat and no one ever rose to this challenge in a firm enough manner to knock her off the pedestal. It will be close, but Attorney General Martha Coakley will emerge as the nominee, followed by Mike Capuano in second, Alan Khazei in third and Steve Pagliuca in fourth. Just for the heck of it, I am going to pin Coakley’s winning total at 38%, followed by Capuano at 31%, Khazei at 18% and Pagliuca at 13%.

To find out where to vote, click here.

Mayor of Birmingham (Original Post)

To be honest, this race has been so fast and so tumultuous that it is hard to imagine how voters will choose in this race, much less a blogger living far away. Ultimately, in this sort of chaotic race, name recognition wins the day. I think Patrick Cooper, the second-place finisher in 2007, will eke out a victory, but this kind of race lends itself almost no guide as to how it will end up.

To find out where to vote, click here.

Kentucky State Senate District 14 and House District 96 (Original Post)

Democrats are hoping to close the gap in the State Senate tomorrow – through the maneuvering of the Democratic governor, a Republican State Senator left the job to become a judge and opened up this toss-up seat. Democrat Jodie Haydon is hoping to beat out Republican Jimmy Higdon. Money has poured into the race, especially from the horse racing interests who support the Democrat. I predict that Democrats will pick up the seat, barely, while also holding onto the House seat, also in a fairly close race.

Read the latest news story about this race here

Los Angeles City Council District 2 (Original Post)

Its a race for Democrats to salivate over – on this powerful and unwieldy Council, two Democrats have been fighting over who can position themselves in the most progressive light. I predict that Paul Krekorian has done this most convincingly and will win the election tomorrow

Arkansas State Senate District 4 (Original Post)

If Republicans have any trouble holding onto this seat, they are in major trouble. I predict an easy win for Michael Lamoureux.


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